> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polyhelper.gitbook.io/polyhelper-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polyhelper.gitbook.io/polyhelper-docs/analytics-tools/macro-intel.md).

# Macro Intel

The FOMC meeting is coming up — are you ready? **Macro Intel** puts the Fed rate, next meeting countdown, and key macro indicators directly inside Polymarket. No tab switching, no digging through economic calendars.

Open it via the **Econ** icon in the right-side panel navigation.

|                                                                                                                       |                                                                                                                           |
| --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| ![Macro Intel Panel](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/polymarkethelper/gitbook/main/.gitbook/assets/macro-intel.png) | ![Macro Intel Panel 2](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/polymarkethelper/gitbook/main/.gitbook/assets/macro-intel-2.png) |

***

## What the Panel Shows

### Fed Rate & Context

* **Current Fed Rate** — the benchmark federal funds rate with the most recent change (e.g., 3.75% +0.25 pp)
* **Rate context banner** — plain English interpretation of the current rate direction:
  * `Rate cut → risk-on` — easing cycle supports upside bets
  * `Rate hike → risk-off` — tightening cycle suppresses risk assets
* **Rate chart** — historical rate path showing the full tightening/easing cycle
* **Range Position** — where the current rate sits relative to the recent cycle range (e.g., "At period low")

### Next Release

The panel counts down to the next FOMC announcement:

* **Date** — exact meeting date (e.g., Tue, Apr 28)
* **Countdown** — days until the decision (e.g., 12 days / Soon)
* **Visual urgency indicator** — highlighted when the meeting is approaching

This is the single most important date for Fed rate markets on Polymarket.

***

## Related Indicators

Each indicator shows: current value, recent change, a mini chart, a signal label, and a plain English interpretation.

### Yield Curve

|                   |                                                                |
| ----------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **What it is**    | Spread between long and short-term Treasury yields             |
| **Signal**        | Neutral / Inverted (recession warning) / Steep (growth signal) |
| **Example read**  | "Normal curve — no recession signal from bonds"                |
| **Time selector** | 1W · 1M · 3M · 1Y                                              |

### Unemployment

|                   |                                             |
| ----------------- | ------------------------------------------- |
| **What it is**    | US unemployment rate                        |
| **Signal**        | Neutral / Supports cuts / Against cuts      |
| **Example read**  | "Elevated unemployment supports dovish Fed" |
| **Time selector** | 3M · 6M · 1Y · 3Y                           |

### CPI YoY

|                   |                                                    |
| ----------------- | -------------------------------------------------- |
| **What it is**    | Consumer Price Index year-over-year inflation rate |
| **Signal**        | For cuts / Neutral / Against cuts                  |
| **Example read**  | "Hot inflation — Fed likely to hold or hike"       |
| **Time selector** | 3M · 6M · 1Y · 3Y                                  |

***

## How to Use It

**For Fed rate decision markets** (e.g., "Will the Fed cut rates in \[month]?"):

1. Check the **Next Release** date — is the meeting within the market's resolution window?
2. Read each indicator's **signal label** — are they aligned (all dovish / all hawkish) or mixed?
3. Inflation (CPI) + Unemployment + Yield Curve together paint the picture: if CPI is "Against cuts" but Unemployment is "Supports cuts", the Fed faces a dilemma — markets tend to price uncertainty, creating trading opportunities

**For crypto and equity markets tied to Fed expectations:**

1. Check the rate context banner — are we in a rate cut cycle (risk-on) or hike cycle (risk-off)?
2. Macro shifts often move crypto and stock markets before formal announcements

***

## Markets Where This Panel Activates

* [Federal Reserve rate decision markets](https://polymarket.com/economy/fed-rates)
* [FOMC meeting outcome markets](https://polymarket.com/economy/fed-rates)
* [Inflation / CPI markets](https://polymarket.com/predictions/inflation)
* [GDP and unemployment data markets](https://polymarket.com/economy)
* Any crypto, equity, or financial market where macro policy is relevant


---

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