> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polyhelper.gitbook.io/polyhelper-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polyhelper.gitbook.io/polyhelper-docs/analytics-tools/conflict-radar.md).

# Conflict Monitor

The **Conflict Monitor** panel uses NASA satellite thermal detection data to track military activity in conflict zones — giving you an objective, source-independent signal for geopolitical markets.

![Conflict Monitor — Iran Nuclear Sites](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/polymarkethelper/gitbook/main/.gitbook/assets/conflict-monitor.png)

***

## How It Works

NASA's FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) satellites detect thermal anomalies on Earth's surface — including fires and explosions from military operations. In active conflict zones, spikes in thermal detections correlate with intensified fighting.

PolyHelper maps these detections to conflict zones relevant to active Polymarket markets and turns them into a readiness signal.

***

## Activity Levels

| Level       | Meaning                                                      |
| ----------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| 🟢 Normal   | No significant thermal activity detected                     |
| 🟡 Elevated | Above-average thermal detections in the zone                 |
| 🟠 High     | Significant spike — active military operations likely        |
| 🔴 Critical | Extreme thermal activity — major kinetic operations detected |

***

## What the Panel Shows

* **Activity level** — current status (Normal / Elevated / High / Critical)
* **24h Activity Trend** — hourly chart of thermal detections over the past day
* **Night activity %** — share of detections occurring at night (higher night activity = unusual)
* **Hotspot clusters** — list of detected zones with intensity (Low / Moderate / High / Extreme) and detection count
* **FRP (Fire Radiative Power)** — intensity measure of each thermal event
* Link to view detections on the NASA map

***

## Market Interpretation

| Level    | Signal for conflict escalation markets                       |
| -------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Normal   | Bearish — low thermal activity suggests reduced operations   |
| Elevated | Watch — above-average, could indicate positioning            |
| High     | Bullish — historically correlates with escalation phases     |
| Critical | Strong bullish — extreme anomalies indicate major operations |

{% hint style="info" %}
This is an OSINT signal based on satellite data, not a direct report of military activity. Use it alongside other sources.
{% endhint %}

***

## Markets Where This Panel Activates

* [Military conflict and escalation markets](https://polymarket.com/geopolitics)
* [Territorial control markets](https://polymarket.com/geopolitics/ukraine-map)
* Any market where frontline activity in a conflict zone is relevant


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