> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polyhelper.gitbook.io/polyhelper-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polyhelper.gitbook.io/polyhelper-docs/analytics-tools/box-office.md).

# Box Office

Trading box office markets just got easier. The **Box Office** panel loads everything you need — current weekend estimates, weekly history, market probabilities, and comparable films — directly inside Polymarket.

Open it via the **Box Office** icon in the right-side panel navigation.

![Box Office Panel](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/polymarkethelper/gitbook/main/.gitbook/assets/box-office.png)

***

## What the Panel Shows

### Movie Card

At the top: movie poster, title, studio, rating (PG / PG-13 / R), and genre.

### Current Estimate & Context

The main stats block:

| Field                | Description                                                                         |
| -------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **EST**              | Current weekend gross estimate                                                      |
| **Market consensus** | Most likely outcome bracket based on current Polymarket pricing (e.g., <44m at 93¢) |
| **Week number**      | Which weekend the film is in (Wk1, Wk2, Wk3...)                                     |
| **Budget**           | Production budget for context                                                       |
| **Legs**             | Total gross ÷ opening weekend — higher means stronger audience retention            |
| **Competition**      | Other films opening the same weekend                                                |

### Weekly Performance History

* **Prev:** how the predecessor/franchise film performed at opening
* **Wk1, Wk2, Wk3...** with actual grosses and % change between each week

### Estimate Range Slider

A visual range bar showing where the current estimate sits between the low and high projection.

### Market Outcome Probability Bars

The panel shows what Polymarket is currently pricing for each revenue bracket:

![Box Office — Market Outcome Probability Bars](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/polymarkethelper/gitbook/main/.gitbook/assets/box-office-2.png)

Instantly shows the market's conviction — and where mispricings might exist.

***

## Drop Comps

The **Drop Comps** section shows comparable films with their opening weekend gross and Wk2/Wk3 percentage drop — your benchmark for whether the current film is holding better or worse than similar releases:

| Film                               | Opening Weekend | Drop |
| ---------------------------------- | --------------- | ---- |
| Moana 2 (2024)                     | $139.8M         | -63% |
| Lilo & Stitch (2025)               | $146.0M         | -58% |
| The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) | $146.4M         | -37% |
| Inside Out 2 (2024)                | $154.2M         | -34% |
| Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022)    | $107.0M         | -57% |
| A Minecraft Movie (2025)           | $162.8M         | -52% |

If the current film is dropping faster than comparable titles, the lower revenue brackets are likely.

***

## How to Use It

**For weekly gross range markets** (e.g., "Will \[Movie] gross <$44M in Weekend 3?"):

1. Check the **current estimate** and **range slider** — is consensus already near the target?
2. Look at **drop comps** — if similar family films dropped 55–63% by Wk3, what range does the current trajectory imply?
3. Compare **market probability bars** against the comps — is the 93¢ on <44M justified, or is there value on a higher bracket?

**For cumulative gross markets:**

1. Use the legs multiplier — 2.35x legs means the film is expected to earn 2.35× its opening weekend in total
2. Track weekly decline rate vs. comparable films

***

## Markets Where This Panel Activates

* [Weekend box office gross markets (Wk1, Wk2, Wk3, etc.)](https://polymarket.com/pop-culture/movies)
* [Cumulative domestic or worldwide gross markets](https://polymarket.com/predictions/box-office)
* Any market involving a specific film's theatrical performance


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