Box Office
Trading box office markets just got easier. The Box Office panel loads everything you need — current weekend estimates, weekly history, market probabilities, and comparable films — directly inside Polymarket.
Open it via the Box Office icon in the right-side panel navigation.
What the Panel Shows
Movie Card
At the top: movie poster, title, studio, rating (PG / PG-13 / R), and genre.
Current Estimate & Context
The main stats block:
EST
Current weekend gross estimate
Market consensus
Most likely outcome bracket based on current Polymarket pricing (e.g., <44m at 93¢)
Week number
Which weekend the film is in (Wk1, Wk2, Wk3...)
Budget
Production budget for context
Legs
Total gross ÷ opening weekend — higher means stronger audience retention
Competition
Other films opening the same weekend
Weekly Performance History
Prev: how the predecessor/franchise film performed at opening
Wk1, Wk2, Wk3... with actual grosses and % change between each week
Estimate Range Slider
A visual range bar showing where the current estimate sits between the low and high projection.
Market Outcome Probability Bars
The panel shows what Polymarket is currently pricing for each revenue bracket:
Instantly shows the market's conviction — and where mispricings might exist.
Drop Comps
The Drop Comps section shows comparable films with their opening weekend gross and Wk2/Wk3 percentage drop — your benchmark for whether the current film is holding better or worse than similar releases:
Moana 2 (2024)
$139.8M
-63%
Lilo & Stitch (2025)
$146.0M
-58%
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)
$146.4M
-37%
Inside Out 2 (2024)
$154.2M
-34%
Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022)
$107.0M
-57%
A Minecraft Movie (2025)
$162.8M
-52%
If the current film is dropping faster than comparable titles, the lower revenue brackets are likely.
How to Use It
For weekly gross range markets (e.g., "Will [Movie] gross <$44M in Weekend 3?"):
Check the current estimate and range slider — is consensus already near the target?
Look at drop comps — if similar family films dropped 55–63% by Wk3, what range does the current trajectory imply?
Compare market probability bars against the comps — is the 93¢ on <44M justified, or is there value on a higher bracket?
For cumulative gross markets:
Use the legs multiplier — 2.35x legs means the film is expected to earn 2.35× its opening weekend in total
Track weekly decline rate vs. comparable films
Markets Where This Panel Activates
Any market involving a specific film's theatrical performance
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